The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the southwest monsoon is expected to hit Kerala on May 27, 2025 — a few days earlier than its usual arrival date of June 1. If this forecast comes true, it will mark the earliest monsoon onset over the Indian mainland since 2009, when it began on May 23.
This prediction is not just about dates on a calendar. The monsoon’s arrival is a crucial turning point in India’s weather cycle, marking the transition from scorching summer heat to the refreshing, rain-soaked season that fuels agriculture and replenishes water sources.
Why Is the Onset Over Kerala So Important?
The onset of the monsoon over Kerala is considered the official start of the southwest monsoon season in India. It acts as a key indicator for farmers, policymakers, and water resource planners across the country. Once it begins in Kerala, the monsoon typically advances northward, covering the entire country by July 8.
From there, it begins its withdrawal from northwest India around September 17 and completely exits the subcontinent by October 15.
What Does the Forecast Say?
- Predicted onset: May 27, 2025
- Normal onset date: June 1 (±4 days)
- Last year’s onset: June 8, 2023
IMD’s forecast model: Based on a state-of-the-art indigenous statistical system, in use since 2005
This year’s forecast also comes with a silver lining. The IMD has predicted above-normal cumulative rainfall for the 2025 monsoon season, despite the potential presence of El Niño conditions, which are typically associated with weaker rainfall.
Why the Southwest Monsoon Matters
The southwest monsoon is responsible for about 75% of India’s total annual rainfall. In the plains, nearly 87% of annual rainfall is received during this season. It is critical for:
- Kharif crop cultivation (like rice, maize, and pulses)
- Drinking water supply
- Hydropower generation
- Sustaining river systems and groundwater levels
A Season of Hope
With temperatures soaring across much of India, the news of an early monsoon offers a much-needed ray of hope. Not only does it promise relief from the heat, but it also brings optimism for a productive agricultural season and better water availability in the months ahead.
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